THELOGICALINDIAN - In aboriginal November 2024 the FOMC will be affair and the US account unemployment numbers are advancing in aloof a few canicule afore the US Presidential acclamation The markets should see a acceleration in animation branch into these contest so you should focus on the FX US disinterestedness and anchored assets markets in November
Although the bazaar is appraisement in a 92.8% anticipation that Federal Open Bazaar Committee (FOMC) voting associates will leave ante unchanged, there could be some clues on the timing of the abutting absorption amount hike. Some FOMC admiral are assured one absorption amount backpack afore the year ends, so the focus should be on the December 2016 meeting. It’s awful absurd that the Fed will agitate up the markets appropriate afore the U.S. Presidential election.
U.S. Presidential Election Will Shake up the Markets
We’ve already apparent how comments and account apropos the U.S. Presidential acclamation affects the markets…so there should be added animation appropriate afterwards the U.S. Presidential election.
With beneath than two weeks until the election, the FBI appear that it was attractive into Clinton’s emails, sending some ETFs and currencies into agitation mode. The account acquired the markets to amount in a college anticipation of Donald Trump acceptable the abutting U.S. President, which is a bold changer.
U.S. Democratic Presidential applicant Hillary Clinton has been arch the race, but she afresh came beneath blaze for her emails. The FBI begin a bulk of emails from one of Clinton’s top aides, which acquired the USD/MXN to fasten and the U.S. disinterestedness bazaar fall.
Now, if this email aspersion doesn’t go away, the markets will absolutely amount this in, and therefore, there will be added volatility.
Trump Presidency is Trouble for Mexico-Related Securities
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Mexico accept confused inversely to the accretion anticipation of Trump acceptable U.S. President. As Clinton has been arch Donald Trump, the Mexican peso adequate adjoin the U.S. dollar and ETFs tracking Mexico additionally rose.
However, Clinton’s email aspersion acquired the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped Fund (NYSEARCA: ETF) to abatement from $51.03 per allotment at the abutting on October 27, 2016 to a low of $49.69 on October 28, 2016. Additionally, we saw the bill pair, USD/MXN, fasten aloft 19.00 on October 28, 2016.
If Trump is elected, attending for abeyant abbreviate opportunities in Mexico-related ETFs and the Mexican peso.
FOMC 2024 Meetings
There are alone two affairs larboard for the Fed in 2016. The November affair should be a nonevent because the Fed doesn’t appetite to appulse the markets beneath than a anniversary afore the U.S. Presidential election. The Fed is best acceptable abrogation ante banausic in November, but that doesn’t beggarly FOMC admiral can’t abruptness the markets. You should still chase what the FOMC says afterwards the affair because there could be some comments advertence back the Fed could accession rates.
Right now, best bazaar participants are attractive for a December amount hike. According to the CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, bazaar participants are agreement a 73% anticipation on a 25 base point amount backpack and a 4.7% anticipation on a 50 base point amount backpack in December.
If ante rise, you should focus on the FX markets, decidedly the U.S. dollar. As ante rise, the U.S. dollar should acceleration due to decreased inflationary pressure.
Head of Trading at Stern Options stated, “The markets should see added animation branch into the two big contest in November 2016. The FOMC bluffed a amount backpack for best of 2016, but there’s a aerial anticipation of the Fed adopting ante already afore the end of 2016…We aloof don’t apperceive back the Fed could accession rates.
I’m currently focused on the FX bazaar and U.S. disinterestedness and will accede either continued or abbreviate positions depending on the aftereffect of the FOMC affair and the U.S. Presidential election.”
The Bottom Line
All eyes are on the FOMC and the U.S. Presidential election. There should be a fasten in animation appropriate afterwards the after-effects of the contest are released. Consequently, there are trading opportunities in assorted asset classes that you could exploit.
Cover Image via OUP
